Predictions!

 

Here we are again - the completion of 10 movies and my predictions for the winners on Hollywood's biggest night. The show is on Sunday, and *bonus* ONE HOUR EARLIER than usual!! And I'm not just talking about daylight savings time - it actually starts at 6pm CST. This better not mean they will try and fill 4 hours instead of the typical 3 hours that they have yet to adhere to...

Anyway, I digress. Overall, this year's batch seemed to fall along the same lines as the groups from years past: I liked some, didn't like others, experienced a range of emotions, and blogged about the ride. As I reflect on this particular group, I find it interesting how there are five common themes among the Best Picture nominees, with the films telling a dichotomy of perspective on each topic. Let me explain...

World War II: Oppenheimer and The Zone of Interest both take place during this tumultuous time period, but differ in the focus points and in how the story is told on screen. 

Dissolution of Relationships: Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives both show how a romantic relationship ends, one with death and one with time/distance. 

Female Empowerment: Barbie and Poor Things cover women owning their worth and standing up for themselves amongst the men in their world, albeit in very diverse ways. 

Familial Relationships: American Fiction and The Holdovers both give interesting depictions of the interactions of families and how we come to understand and support each other. 

Biopic Enhanced with Prosthetics: Maestro and Killers of the Flower Moon fall into this Oscar-favorite, both covering real people/events through the use of eye-catching prosthetics on full display on the faces of well-known actors. 

I'm not sure I noticed this type of a link between the nominated films before, but I found this interesting to think about as I reflected on my movie journey this season. Also, there are several categories that are hard for me to choose a winner, mainly because there are so many deserving nominees! Typically, I have a clear cut performance that I'm rooting for, but there are a lot of worthy performances that would make me happy if they took home that little gold statue. But, back to the predictions...

As in previous years, I'm going to make my prediction as to who I think will win (AA) and who I would give my vote (K) to in each category. 

Picture:
AA: Oppenheimer - I love this film and honestly hope that it cleans up on Oscar night. It's had all the momentum since its release last summer, which is almost unheard of. The winner of this category is chosen based on highest average of votes - Oppenheimer may not be everyone's first choice, but it will be every voter's 2nd or 3rd choice. No other film is going to cumulatively rate that high across the ballots. 
K: Oppenheimer - far and away one of the best films I have seen in a long, long time. Fantastic display of filmmaking across multiple categories. 

Actor - Leading Role:
AA: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) - he was perfect for this role and very deserving of this win. 
K: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) - I agree Murphy should win, but I loved Giamatti in this film! Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is a CLOSE second for me.

Actress - Leading Role:
AA: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) - her performance stands out is a subtly strong way that is the quiet, driving force of this film. Emma Stone (Poor Things) could steal this one because this is by far and away the strongest performance of her career and she's already won other accolades for this performance.
K: Carey Mulligan (Maestro) - she saves this movie and is quite literally the only person worth watching in the entire thing. She deserves my vote for having to carry this whole movie by herself. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) is a CLOSE second. 

Actor -Supporting Role:
AA: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) - he's chilling, conniving, and suave all at the same time. I loved this contrast to Murphy's character. 
K: Robert Downey Jr. - I liked Ryan Gosling's scene-grabbing Ken and what Mark Ruffalo did was an interesting side step for him, but RDJ's role was so intense and his demise was delicious to watch.

Actress - Supporting Role:
AA: Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) - she's got the Oscar buzz, won many of the precursor awards, and honestly, she has the best performance in this group. 
K: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - I wanted more of her!! She was a scene-stealer and I loved every second of her in this role.

Animated Feature:
AA: Elemental - I haven't seen any of these films, but Disney/Pixar has a great track record in this category, so seems like a safe bet.

Cinematography:
AA: Oppenheimer - I'm going to sound really repetitive with wins for this film, but it's so good and I think it's gearing up for a huge night. 
K: Oppenheimer - so many unique things happening in this film for this category. The strategic use of color versus black and white really spoke to me, and that explosion scene still makes me hold my breath with nervous energy. My fave of the bunch!

Costume Design:
AA: Poor Things - the costumes were such an integral part for the visual demonstration of Bella's development and progression of her story.
K: Barbie - it was like jumping back in time to my Barbie years...

Directing:
AA: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) - can you believe he's never won before? If he wins, it will be to recognize both this film and his outstanding body of work. 
K: Christopher Nolan - he's a phenomenal director and I find his storytelling so intriguing and smart. I have discovered something new to appreciate in each of my three viewings of this movie. I also could be persuaded to vote for Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Jonathan Glazer (Zone of Interest) for their stellar work and unique direction. 

Documentary Feature:
AA: 20 Days in Mariupol - it documents the early days of the war in Ukraine. I haven't seen it, but have heard it's devastating to watch. 

Documentary Short:
AA: The Barber of Little Rock - total guess based on a brief description of the film.

Film Editing:
AA: Oppenheimer - this film is so strong in all of it's categories. Every filmmaker involved brought their A game. As much as I would like to see Anatomy of a Fall take this one, Oppenheimer is in a league of its own.  

International Feature:
AA: The Zone of Interest - didn't see any of the other nominees, but to be honest, I don't think that matters. This is a strong contender in the Best Picture category; it levels the field in this one. 

Makeup and Hairstyling:
AA: Maestro - I hate to pick this film, but the prosthetics (minus the nose) were really well done and Oscar voters LOVE prosthetic work. 

Music - Original Score: 
AA: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson does it again. This is a tough category with many great nominees, but this score is out of this world. 
K: Oppenheimer - I liked all of the scores that accompanied the best picture nominees, but this was was my favorite and is yet another strength of this film. 

Music - Original Song: 
AA: What Was I Made For? - I think this one has been locked down for a while.
K: What Was I Made For? - It's an emotional song that is sung beautifully and is well placed in the context of the story to enhance the plot and purpose of the scene. 

Production Design: 
AA: Poor Things - SO much happening in this set! It's a shame the camera angles move so quickly, limiting the amount of time available to appreciate it. 
K: Barbie - again for nostalgia and all of the details to mimic those of real Barbie toys and accessories. 

Animated Short: 
AA: War Is Over! - again, total guess. I liked this film description the best. 

Live Action Short: 
AA: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - Benedict Cumberbatch is in this film, I have to vote for it. 

Sound:
AA: The Zone of Interest - all of the films I saw in this category were fantastic, but what this film did was outstandingly original and effective. 
K: The Zone of Interest - this feature alone elicits feelings of revulsion towards the subject matter. The white background noise is a gut-wrenching display of the desensitization to the daily murder of thousands of humans. 

Visual Effects: 
AA: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 - did you see that train scene?!

Writing - Adapted Screenplay: 
AA: Tony McNamara (Poor Things) - this is the kind of push the limits, never-been-done before film the Academy likes to recognize to show how progressive it is, and they often use this smaller award to do this rather than choosing it for Best Picture. It's a safe way to award films that might be too controversial for the general public. 
K: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) - this was the HARDEST category for me to choose, because each nominee is actually really strong and deserving. But this film portrayed the Holocaust in a manner that I have never experienced before, and I am still haunted by it. 

Writing - Original Screenplay: 
AA: Justine Triet and Arthur Itarari (Anatomy of a Fall) - fantastic story spin that offers a fresh telling of the traditional courtroom drama/mystery. Oppenheimer isn't in this category, so this film actually has a shot to win this one! Much like Zone of Interest, the plot is interesting and told in an innovative manner. I would also be happy if Celine Song won for Past Lives, for many of the same reasons. 
K: David Hemingson (The Holdovers) - a surprise gem among this year's films. Smart, heartfelt, and funny - with a touch of sarcasm for a little spice!

Whew! That was quite a lengthy prediction write up, so thanks for sticking through to the bitter end! This was a great bunch of films and I'm very much looking forward to Hollywood's biggest (and earlier) night! 

The 96th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 10 at 6pm on ABC.